Adaptive management an overview sciencedirect topics. The concept of risk, which combines the magnitude of the impact with the probability of its occurrence, captures uncertainty in the underlying processes of climate change, exposure, impacts and adaptation. Overall, iterative risk management is an advisable strategy for climate change. Adaptive management is an iterative process in which practitioners test hypotheses and adjust behavior, decisions, and actions based on experience and actual changes. In this way, decision making simultaneously meets one or more resource. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives are available for discussion on the subject. In climate change adaptation, uncertainties arise from different sources, e. Background on uncertainty in climate change climate change science and policy have focused largely on projecting the central tendencies of major variables and impacts. Sep 14, 2011 adaptive management provides a hedge against uncertainty, such that climate and ecosystem models can inform decision making. Third, it engages the growing theoretical literature on adaptive management and federalism.
Pdf uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management. Adaptive management for climate change springerlink. In the face of climate change uncertainty and risk, robust adaptation includes two main conceptual types of interdependent decisions. Government and private sector organizations are collectively adopting predicted impacts of climate change into strategic planning processes. Climate changes uncertainty principle scientific american. Scientific uncertainty and the risks of climate change pdf. Scientific uncertainty and the risks of climate change this is a presentation by jay gulledge of the pew center on global climate change about the basic mechanisms and consequences of humaninduced climate change, as well as uncertain aspects such as climate sensitivity. Adapting to these effects is essential, but regulators and scholars. Adapting to these effects is essential, but regulators. The second part of the book examines the impacts that climate change has on the water sector.
Risk and uncertainty in adaptive forest management under. Vulnerability to climate change is the degree to which these systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts. Adapting to these effects is essential, but regulators and scholars have largely neglected this need. The international panel on climate change ipcc has managed such a process with the science of climate change. Uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management. Were helping to change the rules climate change is moving us into a future. Although the basic science is wellunderstood and now seems con. This is part of an faoled process to prepare climate change guidelines for forest managers. Adaptive management also provides possibilities for management action in the face of moving targets and baselines, such as in the case of resources potentially affected by climate change. Knowing what these risks are, how and where they are spatially located, and how to reduce them can assist resource managers in prioritizing climate change adaptation andor mitigation actions. It believes there is sufficient scientific evidence for climate change to be treated as a major risk to society.
Managing uncertainty in climate driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change jeremy s. Pdf the adaptive water resource management handbook. Shaw 2 1center for science in the earth system climate impacts group, university of washington, seattle, washington 98195 usa. Managing uncertainty in climatedriven ecological models to. Climate change can be considered a significant source of exogenous and stochastic doses of changing climatic conditions, variability and associated catastrophic events lindner et al. Exploring climate change uncertainties to support adaptive. Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy nature. Most scientists and decisionmakers now recognize that climate change has not only in. Climate change, uncertainty, and natural resource management. Conclusion finally, we discuss what to emphasise in future studies to improve the understanding of adaptive forest management and decision support tools needed to cope with climate change. Projected change in temperature in 2100 from a specific policy 34 boxes s1.
Adaptive design and risk management, mop 140, provides guidance for and contributes to the developing or enhancing of methods for infrastructure analysis and design in a world in which risk profiles are changing and can be projected with varying degrees of uncertainty requiring a new design philosophy to meet. Given the novel challenges and opportunities posed by many climate related. Feeding this uncertainty is the sheer complexity of the. Though legislatures and agencies are considering how to prevent further climate change, some adverse effects from a warming climate are already inevitable.
This presentation was given for a seminar titled scientific uncertainty and the risks of climate change. Inevitably, decision makers need to act in the face of uncertainties, which is a. A key constraint on exploring future changes in flood risk and their uncertainty under climate change is that global climate models, especially where they need to be downscaled to reflect highly orographic rainfall regimes, do not capture local changes in the frequency and intensity of high intensity rainfall events. Global change science and policymaking will continue to deal with uncertainty and surprise. Key words adaptive management, climate change, nonstationarity, structured decisionmaking, uncertainty.
The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation. Uncertainty in climate change adaptation suraje dessai sustainability research institute and esrc centre for climate change economics and policy, school of earth and environment, university of leeds, uk climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation cciam research group, faculty of sciences, university of lisbon, portugal. Adaptive management is particularly well suited to deal with natural systems impacted by climate change 73, as the changes experienced by these systems have the potential to impact natural variability 67. A multimodel comparison1 kenneth gillingham, william nordhaus, david anthoff, geoffrey blanford, valentina bosetti, peter christensen, haewon mcjeon, john reilly and paul sztorc abstract the economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the. What are the main uncertainties regarding climate change. High uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a. Aug 05, 2015 we argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be antifragile with respect to scientific uncertainty. Embracing uncertainty water utility climate alliance. We argue that climate change policy could benefit by taking an adaptive approach. Report addresses approaches to the use of adaptive risk management for adaptation in the face of climate change uncertainty, including the role of cost benefit analysis and other methods view full. It examines climate change impacts on forests and forest managers throughout the world.
Adaptive management plans can provide for scientific uncertainty. Uncertainty and climate change policy stephen schneider. A very interesting new article in nature climate change. Camacho abstract though legislatures and agencies are considering how to prevent further climate change, some adverse effects from a warming climate are already inevitable.
Adaptive management is an iterative process in which practitioners test. The impact of climate change uncertainty on californias vegetation and adaptation management james h. An iterative process, adaptive management is also able to address both shortand longterm considerations. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. Uncertainties and causes of uncertainties in climate. Adaptive management am, also known as adaptive resource management arm or adaptive environmental assessment and management aeam, is a structured, iterative process of robust decision making in the face of uncertainty, with an aim to reducing uncertainty over time via system monitoring. The importance of uncertainties about climate change and its impacts for a particular adaptation decision depends on factors such as the time horizon and reversibility of the decision, the relative importance of climate factors for the decision, and the costs of buffering the decision against uncertain. Martin bunzl takes the idea of climate change as a risk management problem seriously. Considering the uncertainty surrounding climate change, knowledge and policy need to be continually updated and challenged. Shaw 2 1center for science in the earth system climate impacts group, university of washington, seattle, washington 98195 usa 2pacific wildland. However, the ability to fully explore the implications of climate change uncertainty across a range of emissions scenarios and climate models is highly constrained by the cost of available expertise at local levels where responsibility for flood risk management has been devolved. Market solutions for improving canadas environment monitor the impacts of climate change to give advance warning of dangerous impacts and, if necessary, to rearrange priorities for mitigation and adapta. Uncertainty, climate change, and adaptive management article pdf available in ecology and society 12 december 1997 with 565 reads how we measure reads.
It also includes adaptation options, which are essential to water resource sustainability. Taken together, the combined evidence increases the overall level of confidence in the attribution of observed climate change, and reduces the uncertainties associated with assessment based on a single climate variable. Scientific uncertainty and the risks of climate change. Managing uncertainty through a learning infrastructure alejandro e. An assessment of adaptation strategies and scenario development for resource managers a white paper from the california energy commissions california climate change center. Uncertainty and the philosophy of climate change 1st. The impact of climate change uncertainty on californias. Adaptive management of climate change risks indur m. Human influence has been detected in nearly all of the major assessed components of the climate system.
Pdf humanitys transformation of the earth has increased the concentration of. Managing water resources under climate uncertainty. E17,o,q54 abstract the paper illustrates how one may assess our comprehensive uncertainty about the various relations in the entire chain from human activity to climate change. Uncertainty about future climate change is an unavoidable fact. Adaptive management of climate change risks the fraser institute prereleased chapter from a breath of fresh air. The research summarized in chapter 2, and described in further detail in part ii of the report, has also identified some of the. Adaptive management to address climate change uncertainty. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy friederike e. Sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty are connected to observed data, understanding of processes, modelling, and projections for the future. Climate change will unfold in different ways across the united states and across the globe, and different sectors, populations, and regions will be differentially exposed and sensitive to the impacts of these changes. In assessing the economics of climate change there are therefore at least two sources of uncertainty what the climate will be, and what any given changed climate will mean in economic terms.
Uncertainty may mean different things to different people, hence systematic ordering is required for interpreting uncertainty of climate change impacts on water resources. In a book that is personal, as well as philosophically, politically, and scientifically wellinformed, he asks us to see the challenge of climate change in collective terms. As the preceding chapter makes clear, scientific research has steadily increased our understanding of climate change, as well as our appreciation of the complexity of the climate system and related, interacting human and environmental systems. This article evaluates the capacity of natural resource governance to cope with the effects of climate change and provides a framework for. Uncertainty in adaptation to climate change in forest management 1 introduction managing forests under climate change is a difficult task largely because of the complexities and uncertainties involved.
Dec 10, 2016 high uncertainty posed by climate change makes such preparation difficult at best, where a wide array of potential scenarios and decision alternatives are available for discussion on the subject. Adaptive management national academies, adaptive management for water. You may need a pdf reader to view some of the files on this page. Managing uncertainty through a learning infrastructure, alejandro e. This book aims to come up with views to address the queries of planners, policymakers, and general people for water resources management under uncertainty of climate change, including examples from asia and europe with successful adaptive measures to change the challenge of climate change into opportunities. Given our focus we do not discuss all aspects related to adaptive management, such as resilience, adaptive capacity and social learning pahlwostl 2007. While research on climate change strategies and management have witnessed remarkable growth over the last few decades see, e. Uncertainty about climate change is compounded by the impacts that climate. The first part of the book provides an introduction to climate change and considers theoretical aspects and available tools.
This book is about ways of dealing with uncertainty in the management of renewable resources, such as. This paper comments on the risks and uncertainty associated with climate change from an actuarial perspective, how a risk management perspective could help inform policy. Conference of mayors, national governors association, and a recent government accountability office report gao, 2009b, the panel finds that a national framework is needed to overcome impediments to adaptation, to guide the nationa s adaptive re sponse to climate change in a. Achieving the full benefit of adaptive management will require novel collaborative arrangements between.
Adaptive management is not the solution for everything. Goklany 1 introduction under most scenarios of the future world, including those developed by the intergovernmental panel on climate change ipcc in its special report on emission scenarios sres ipcc, 2000, the world should be getting more populated and wealthier during this century. Yet despite the difficulty in forecasting climate change and its consequences, it remains imperative to address the wide uncertainties in our understanding of climate change and its effects. In light of the looming challenges of climate change, utilities begin incorporating climate science and assessments into water utility planning and identifying adaptation strategies. Some scholars use the term adaptive risk management to describe the process of. It is increasingly recognized that adaptation to climate change has become. Uncertainties relate to situations where it is impossible to exactly describe state of future outcomes. D 80, q 00 1overview the extent to which the earths climate will change as a result of human activity is still unclear. This perspective explores whether policymakers can learn from adaptive management techniques to make climate policies antifragile, embracing and benefitting from scientific uncertainty, rather.
A well crafted climate change assessment produces a snapshot of high risk values, areas, processes, and practices in natural resource management. It is commonplace to gauge this uncertainty by simulations with di. Schwartz 1 1department of environmental science and policy, university of california, davis. Anthropogenic, or humaninduced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Adaptive management strategies can support managers and planners looking to overcome the inherent uncertainty surrounding climate change, its effects, and appropriate responses. Managing water resources under climate uncertainty examples. Managing uncertainty in climatedriven ecological models. We argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be antifragile with respect to scientific uncertainty.
Vulnerabilities to climate change vary across regions, societies, and groups. Adaptive management national academies, adaptive management for water resources project planning, the national academies press, washington, dc, 2004. Introduction natural resource management will change in the 21st century because climate change is impacting many components of ecosystems, often in novel and surprising ways millar et al. Uncertainty in adaptation to climate change in forest management. Methods and tools for climate risk management author team main author paul bowyer, climate service center, helmholtzzentrum geesthacht, germany. Uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources. Adapting to the impacts of climate change calls for a national adaptation strategy that provides needed technical and scientific resources, incentives to begin adaptation planning, guidance across jurisdictions, shared lessons learned, and support of scientific research to expand knowledge of impacts and adaptation. Department of interior adaptive management technical guide. Oct 25, 2007 climate change s uncertainty principle scientists say they can never be sure exactly how extreme global warming might become, but thats no excuse for delaying action by david biello on october 25. Like many environment and resource issues facing policymakers, the problem of climate change is plagued with uncertainty regarding the magnitude of its severity and longterm implications. Climate outreach information network is now trading as climate outreach. An example of the advantage of using a tax, rather than a cap, to reduce carbon emissions 29 figures 41. Bridging the gap between climate research and climate policy, 78 climatic change 217, 219 2006.
While central tendencies are clearly important for a first. Uncertainties and risk analysis in climate change adaption. Pdf adaptive management for climate change researchgate. For this reason, and in keeping with recommendations of the u. Uncertainty and change can relate to planning, engineering, socioeconomic andor environmental factors including climate change adaptive management was incorporated in the dmnp ea and linked to the project goal and objectives to better respond to uncertainty and change. Scientists say they can never be sure exactly how extreme global warming might become, but thats no excuse for delaying action.
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